Tuesday, August 20, 2013

NFLX Recap 2013-20-08

Tonight i am doing a Recap per request for a member of SV Forum, On Monday 8/19 a member Wanted to get Flat His NFLX Trade, He needed advise and ask kindly if i can take a look at it before he takes the trade off the table, So i pulled up the Charts and the first thing i saw Was Support at 260.00,The Weekly Trend intact, The Magical Whole Number, that Area was a significant areas for price action as that level was tested multiple times and acting as resistance, so from above as price trended down towards that level i hawk the tape to find alignment with order flow, I wanted to find a Reason to Hold: the two main things i wanted to see was an alignment with Price action and order flow, As i continued to Watching the Tape To the downside there was buying by the big boys on the way down and that clue 2 Gave me confidence that that clue 1 aka Support level at 260 would hold firm, i Recommend he Trade to Hold his Existing position and advise him there would be mild risk to the downside as this is a high beta stock an price needed to slightly breach that support level to test for volume below the whole number as it is natural for price action to gravity toward areas with potential volume. Today NFLX Gap up and Broke the Previous days high on heavy Net buying volume with shorts from yesterday covering there positions pushing this stock higher, What i saw in the first 5mins of the day on NFLX was 1.Net Buying, 2.Shorts Covering there position from the minor retracement, 3. Broker Previous days high on Heavy buying. 4. Market/Sector/Breath all displaying a bullish tone. So i waited patiently as i watch the Tape and looked for and entry, 15mins past, drew in my trendlines and set and alert for a break above the ORB 15min range high, alert Triggered around 11:30, i scaled in and Got Heavy at 267.33 with a Price Target of 270.00, Price Target got Hit, Took off 75% of my position and allowing the remaining 25% to run and the intra day trend-lines never got violated on both ends, i have 25% left on the Table so now i am looking for Clues as to how i can manage this position without leaving money on the Table and giving back some. i defaulted my thought process back to the Tape/order flow and my trend-lines as i will use the same tactic that got me in to also lead me out of my 25% remaining shares, Trend line below price Gave me the trailing mental stop and trend line above price Gave me a Target of 272.20 give or take with That Said using price, order flow and Trend lines will give you 1. Structure 2.a clear view of which way the Stock will continue to Go. 3.Allow you to manage your risk 4. Give you price Targets. 5.allow you to stay on the winning side. i hope you all Enjoy'd my thought process on this Trade, congrats Leeco, Thank you for remaining discipline, Controlling your Risk and sticking to the plan.


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