A+ Pullback trigger

SPY: 15min going into the Fed minutes i wanted to See where all the Exchanges were sitting either on the Bid or Offer and which way they were Ranking, PSE was controlling the Bid while BATS was controlling the offer keeping price close to the Vwap and inside the 15min opening range, Reason for this type of Action was only 1 Reason: to Accumulate a position on both the long and short side, so from past experience i already knew they were out to Drive Prices to areas that will generate the Most volume, likely Areas that Have alot of Stops..lol.i hope you were not one of them. anyways back to my thought process so after i got and idea of what they are most likely going to do next, as a Pro Trader We always Default Back the our Levels, So i pull up my Level Charts to show me the Weekly,Monthly Support and Resistance zones and the Daily Moving Averages leaving out the Intra Day key levels as those level will not be able to hold price on a heavy volume day. Firts Level was located around 164.20-Weekly Support on the Downside, To the Upside We have two Level 1. Daily 50MA at 165.85 and monthly Price Action Pivot zone located around 166.30, My Bias automatically Shifted to the Bullish side as the Support area Was much closer to price then  the Resistance area, After the Release we all expect a spike in either direction only to get HeadFake, We all had this happen to us before but we come to learn from it. So Next What i was looking for was a Spike Down as this was once again the closes area to existing price and it is the mostly likely area price will test first. So here it goes: Spike down, Tested Support,Triggering buy stops, Remember the area that is most likely to generate volume, So where is price going now that it has Tested Support, ohhh the Next Major area of Resistance,once again the Area that is mostly likely to generated the most volume, So we look to those levels Above us. 50MA bam price gets up there and Takes out the Sell Stops only to Sell back off to Support, Makes a whole lot of sense on Why The accumulation always Happens around the Vwap as that Area keeps you flexible to scale into a long or short position also allowing you to capture the spreads on both ends. As Traders we change our bias constantly so being able to see what is most likely going to happen is key as it will help you reduce your exposure to losing trades and allowing you to focus on the setups that only make the best sense to what you are used to.  Good pointer is to only use the levels on the What already Happen Part and forget everything else. We are not Analyst,We are Traders or Risk Managers. With That said I hope you All can Learn from this post as it will Greatly improve your Mental thought Process.

NFLX Recap 2013-20-08

Tonight i am doing a Recap per request for a member of SV Forum, On Monday 8/19 a member Wanted to get Flat His NFLX Trade, He needed advise and ask kindly if i can take a look at it before he takes the trade off the table, So i pulled up the Charts and the first thing i saw Was Support at 260.00,The Weekly Trend intact, The Magical Whole Number, that Area was a significant areas for price action as that level was tested multiple times and acting as resistance, so from above as price trended down towards that level i hawk the tape to find alignment with order flow, I wanted to find a Reason to Hold: the two main things i wanted to see was an alignment with Price action and order flow, As i continued to Watching the Tape To the downside there was buying by the big boys on the way down and that clue 2 Gave me confidence that that clue 1 aka Support level at 260 would hold firm, i Recommend he Trade to Hold his Existing position and advise him there would be mild risk to the downside as this is a high beta stock an price needed to slightly breach that support level to test for volume below the whole number as it is natural for price action to gravity toward areas with potential volume. Today NFLX Gap up and Broke the Previous days high on heavy Net buying volume with shorts from yesterday covering there positions pushing this stock higher, What i saw in the first 5mins of the day on NFLX was 1.Net Buying, 2.Shorts Covering there position from the minor retracement, 3. Broker Previous days high on Heavy buying. 4. Market/Sector/Breath all displaying a bullish tone. So i waited patiently as i watch the Tape and looked for and entry, 15mins past, drew in my trendlines and set and alert for a break above the ORB 15min range high, alert Triggered around 11:30, i scaled in and Got Heavy at 267.33 with a Price Target of 270.00, Price Target got Hit, Took off 75% of my position and allowing the remaining 25% to run and the intra day trend-lines never got violated on both ends, i have 25% left on the Table so now i am looking for Clues as to how i can manage this position without leaving money on the Table and giving back some. i defaulted my thought process back to the Tape/order flow and my trend-lines as i will use the same tactic that got me in to also lead me out of my 25% remaining shares, Trend line below price Gave me the trailing mental stop and trend line above price Gave me a Target of 272.20 give or take with That Said using price, order flow and Trend lines will give you 1. Structure 2.a clear view of which way the Stock will continue to Go. 3.Allow you to manage your risk 4. Give you price Targets. 5.allow you to stay on the winning side. i hope you all Enjoy'd my thought process on this Trade, congrats Leeco, Thank you for remaining discipline, Controlling your Risk and sticking to the plan.


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Inside look at the HPR Setups(High probability Reversal setups)

As you Can See These automated alerts find you low risk, high probability plays on both the long and short side. allowing you to get into a change of trend as they are happening in real-time.
Blue Dot= Long Idea
Orange Dot=Short Idea

The way i trade these alerts is to wait for a Trend-line Break in either directions with volume confirming the move.

CREE HPR Play on Friday-

CREE  showed up on my Hi/lo list as and in play stock for Friday, i added Cree to the HPR watchlist, CREE was Still Weak as the move to the upside was fueled by shorts covering and no net longs supporting this up move. First thought was to get short, 58.80 was and ideal level i was looking to get short, unfortunately price did not even get close to that level so i move back to managing my open position on ES/S&P500, 10mins later an HPR Short alert was generated on CREE, As you can see around 10:30est an alert was triggered, trend-line was Broken So i got Short CREE at 58.14 with a stop above 58.38,  my Target was 56.76 or If i get an HPR long setups i will take off my position. Sure enough around 2pm and HPR long Reversal alerts was triggered so i used that alerts as an opportunity to take off my position. i close my position around 57.39. Net +0.75, These alerts are still in the making but as you can see from the examples above it has been doing a Fab getting me into and out of high probability setups.

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Garsworld.com 

AGCO GT PRO Play 8-15-2013

While i Was busy Scalping the ES/NQ futures AGCO pop up on GT Pro as it Triggered under Big Buy Volume, Pulled up the chart and like the Pattern as it was breaking out if it opening Range on Aggressive Volume, Buy prints was close to 90% on the Ask, Shorts who have not already covered on the Gap down started to cover as it broke the OR high adding to the buy pressure, i got Net Long AGCO around 56.46 just slight up above the Green dash trendline, as price approach the blue dotted trendline around  56.88 the tape still look strong as i notice the weak hands taking off there existing position with no aggressive selling or aka net shorts being triggered. so i waited for the pullback added and got to Tier 2@ 56.73, as price headed back up toward the blue dotted trendline i was already looking to add as the Tape indicated more upside, So i thought i better get heavy and load up. price broke the trendline, i added to my position and got all the way up to Tier 5, My Mental Target was already set at  57.50, i trailed my stop up by 0.5atr due to the Fact volume has been drying up lately as i was worried about failed follow through. i continue to hawk the tape as price got close to my target area and pullback on light volume, tape continued to look good as it had consistent flow of mild aggressive buying, i took the opportunity to added to my position and got up to Tier 7, so i was pretty heavy as i knew this was going to be the only play of the day in the equity markets for me as i was busy once again trading the ES, as price approach my target area i started to offer my way out, sprayed the Offer in increments of 0.03 cents, Final order closed at 57.51, Net Gain of +$1.05 on 7,000 Shares= decent profits on this trendless day.  GT Pro once again Did an awesome job finding me and in play Stock. http://garsworld.com/

JNJ Was a Failed Trade, Tonight i am going to talk about how i gave back Most of my gains trying to play the bounce attempt on Wrong R/R ratio's.  Due to Recent price action the last couple of weeks playing the bounce has help grow my PnL, But not today and again i say not today, around 8:55est  JNJ Held the 91.00 level aka whole number on some decent volume as shorts were covering from that morning down move, Watching the order flow as shorts were covering there short term short position aggressive buying started to hit the tape as short were existing there existing short position it added to the buying pressure putting in a wick on the close of that 8:55 5min down bar, i like it as a bounce play due to the fact there was alignment within the order flow: short covering=buying,Aggressive Buying= higher prices and it was done slightly above the whole number and the trend-line broke, So i got net long around 91.07, only to see price stall right above trend-line 2@91.35, downward action continues, Bounce attempt number 2:i added to my existing long position and guess what happen it sold off and i Took a loss, covered my position around 90.58, Reason to sell: 1.There was still a Big Seller hiding in the tape as i seen them spraying the bid aggressively. 2. added to my losing position below trend-line 2, i was already wrong right there as i did not wait for trend-line break confirmation. 3. i soon realize my Risk to Reward aka R/R Ratio was not properly Set. 4. No Market Support. As soon as i realize i was was not Trading on Telt and without the right mental state of mine. I Realize i was Trade this Setup all Wrong, Yup i play'd this JNJ from the start on the wrong note. 1. JNJ Should of Been trading as a Failed Bounce attempt From the first failed bounce as i saw heavy aggressive selling prints that means get heavy and get short 2. sympathy Weakness occurring in the same sector, Yeah i can believe i brush that off, that right there was already a red flag as i ignored the Sector weakness and still attempted to force a bounce play. Even Though my PnL was green today, i am glad i took this loss as it gave me a window of opportunity to Realize i have not been trading on Telt for the past 7 weeks. This Trade open up ways that well help me become better tomorrow and it also allowed me to answer alot of Errors in my Trading journal i could not seem to figure out what the problem was. now i know. The mental state of mind.

SINA Trade_8-13-13

Got Short SINA Below 83.31: Reason: Trend Line Break, Tape Was Weak with alot of prints below 83.30 ,Failed to Break back above the Whole number at 84.00,Market Bias was to the downside towards the close. Trigger Short at 83.31, Covered at 82.48, Net Gain +0.83, Filter Use Was Big Sell volume on GT PRO

Trading with the All New GT PRO

AAPL Triggered on GT Scan under All Filters as it Was Spiking on the First 5min Elephant Bull Bar, Waited for the first 5min Spike Bar to Close, Weak Hands started taking early  profits, i had my buy order below 480.90, order got hit, Tape Was strong so i got heavy and added to my core net long position above the first 5min spike Bar@ 484.78, Place my limit sell order at the whole number@ 487.00, Took it off to early an left money on the Table, So i waited patiently as i hawk the order flow for clues as to where the next support level would be located as the trade Target was set at 490.00, As price Traded Back down to the 484.50 level the Tape look great to the upside, so i scaled my way back in got Tier 1@484.63, Tier 2@488.54, Took the Trade off at 491.77, With that Said i still Failed as i did it again and left a whole lot of money on the table. Reason for Failure:My Risk was not properly manage aka i did not manage the Trade as it got all the way up to 494.00, a boat load of money was left on the table.